last week events

There are a lot of topics in which I'm intersted and have my own opinion. These are: presidental elections in Russia, Russia-Poland-USA relationships related to this anti-missile installations, Armenian agression against Azerbaijan, Iranian nuclear problem, Kosovo problem from the Karabakh conflict view point, the condition of Azerbaijanian Diaspora in Russia and so on..

But let me start on the problem, which I am interested a lot. This is hot situation in the South Caucas (Azerbaijan, Georgia, Armenia). From the beginning of the century (I'm wondered!) this territories were under undivided attention of the largest countries in the world. Let's remember the Entente countries, Russia, now USA. I understood that full control of these territories my play very improtant role in the one's strategy in Iran, Turkey and the rest West.
And even in modern world the Caucas and smolder conflicts are also in the worlds attention. Let's speak objectivly about Armenia/Azerbaijan conflict. I'm pretty sure that this conflict will be solved in a few years - it is about 20 years story, the story of Armenian occupation and the silence of former-USSR's top mans (Gorbachev and others), which helped to create the big explosive situation in the Caucas.
For 15 years Azerbaijan and Armenia are in cease-fire status (well, each day this status is broken) and for 15 years they have peacefull settlement with the help of negotiators - Minsk group OSCE.
Now we see that after the expiration of more than 15 years we have not any progress in this peacefull settlements. Why? Each time I'm reading the news, I ask myself - why for the 15 years of the hard discussion this three parts didn't solve this problem?
And even now Azerbaijanian diplomats are very dissatisfied with such format of discussions (you can feel this dissatisfaction from their interviews, analyzing of the Azerbaijanian part' warlike declarataions and so on). Even during the last week several Azerbaijanian non-Governmental organizations declared that this Minsk group OSCE's format of the discussions is not effective and doesn't meet Azerbaijanian expecations. What are the Azerbaijan's requierements:
1) principle of the territorial integrity of the Republic
2) all the refugees (azerbaijanians) should be returned to their houses

Armenians want firstly to decide the status of the so-called "Nagorno-Karabakh Republic", and then to disgorge the occupied territories (around the Karabakh region).

In Azerbaijan a lot of people are pretty sure that the key of the solving of this conflict is in the Kremlin, but Russia's official representatives always say that the problem should be solved only between Armenia and Azerbaijan. But, as old Russian proverb says: "their is not smoke without fire". It means that there are several reason why the idea of they Russia's influence to this conflict is very huge. The first is simple - the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan is a good way to perform political manipulations with Azerbaijan. I don't mention Armenia as the government and the President of Armenia are all under Russia's FAS (FSB - former KGB) control and 90% of Armenia's economy is under the Russian business. The second reason is that, in my mind - Armenian's are christians. It does not mean that the conflict has religion aspect,but well Russia is more opened to Christians than to Muslims. And if we read the history - we will know that Armenians were moved by russians to the Caucas 200-250 years ago, when Russian Empire had a fights with Osman Empire and with Caucas nations. Russians just tried to create Christian "wall" on their south borders.

... to be continued...

If you don't know what about is this Conflict, I'd like to recommend you to visit this web-page: www.karabakh.co.uk

Elvin