Again Karabakh issue

http://newsazerbaijan.ru/karabakh/20071218/42075380.html

Have you ever seen a country, 20% of which territory is under the occupation of other foreign power, providing for 17 years negotiations and discussions with the enemy?!

1,5 million of refugees, 30'000 killed person, totaly destroyed ancient towns - There is an old proverd that the blood should be washed away with the blood.

But, well the history will show - had the Azerbaijanian leaders chose the best way of solving the problem (peaceful) or not...

What is interesting for me is a new format of so-called "national diplomacy" - when there are a lot of meetings of the culture people, there are several films, which are created from the both parties and their goal is to restrain the hate between two nations.

I don't understand azerbaijanian people which are not against contacts with armenians - how the could forget the war? the death of unfants? the death of women, old men?

Azerbaijan - is a victim of this war, the nation has the psychology of the defeated party. Well, there are a lot of patriotic movies created in the past few years - but I'm pretty sure that the nature of the turk nation is to fight. To fight against the enemy.

And now Azerbaijan and Armenia are creating the document - and are in process of prepareng framework agreement. As Elmar Mamedyarov (Az. Minister of Foreign Affairs) told that "we are not fully agree with this document. Azerbaijan jas some claims related to this framework agreement which was proposed by OSCE".

I would like to mention that negotiations between Azerbaijanian and Armenian Diplomatic bodies are very classified. And I afraid that the nations in the not far future will be confronted with a fait accompli - with ready document.

In 2008 Armenia and Azerbaijan will have presidential elections - and from this point of view both parties has a huge risks. The Karabakh problem - is the main topic of the electioneerings...

I'm pretty sure that Azerbaijanian President will promise to the nation to liberate the Karabakh frim the foreign intervence.... and on the other hand - Armenia's candidates will promise to proclame independency of the "NKR"...

At least there is one more problem - when there is a unbeleivable growth of Azerbaijanian economy (read = officials wealth) - it is hard to start the war and to lose the stability...

My evaluation is that in 2008 Jan - Feb Azerbaijan will refuse to use OSCE as negotiator, and will :

1) negotiate with UN + Turkey and Islam Countries with the goal to make some influence on Armenia

2) start at the mid Spring the liberation movement

Elvin