Economical potential of Azerbaijan

I am very interested in the historical period of the beginning of XX century, especially the time from the 1915-1922. In that period of the history there were a lot of unprecendented changes in the Global structure and power balance between the key empires: UK, USA, France. And even at that time the Caucasian region was under the big attention of this countries. Especially, Baku and it's provinces. I'm always trying to understand what in Azerbaijan is affecting global leaders. Oil? Strategic location in East and West joint? Caspian sea and it's recourses? And I came to conclusion that all of this parameters are the main attracting reason. Also to control such successful (from the geopolitical view point) - is to have influence on Kazakhstan, Iran, Turkey, even Iraq. Not even influence, but to have cross country business relationships.

For me Azerbaijan, is future transit country with high developed IT/IS technologies, Oil and Gas equipment manufacturing and scientific center, highly devloped touristic country. Azerbaijan's participation in the global transportation projects like an oil pipeline form Baku-Jeyhan, railway from Baku to Turkey throw Georgia - are the main steps which will transfor this country to the international transit center. Also Azerbaijan might be in a middle term period a big international air hub-center.

Europe is interested in diversification of it's oil and gas suppliers (Russia, Iran, Iraq). China is interested in regional transportation corridor throw which they can transportate their production bypass Russian TransSiberia Railway (again to diversify transportation monopoly) and deliver the production throw Kazakhstan, Russia, Turkey to Europe.

Even Iran and Russia are interested to connect their Power Systems into one SuperSystem - and of course Azerbaijan's participation in such corridor is important.

The government of the country should pay attention on diversifying the economy. Now the main point of Azerbaijan's export - is oil.

The country cannot live relying only on oil needle. The country shoud develop and increase manufacturing: building materials production, advanced technology products and so on.

Now the potential of Azerbaijanian Economy is very huge. The problem is = how to manage this potential properly and to bring in a big revenues to the nation...

Elvin

...

Some important steps related to the azerbaijanian presence in the Mass Media in Russia were taken week ago.

In the luxury 5* hotel Ritz Carlton in Moscow new elite magazine was presented - "Baku". The editor-in-chief is the daughter if the AR Presdent.

Surely that was very positive information, and I was really happy on it. But still I have some questions and some misunderstanding.

1) why the magazine is elite? It means that it will be very expensive and common people couldn't purchase it? We are speaking about mass media - and I hope that the affordability of the prices of this magazine to the grass-roots would be in appropriate level..

2) why during the 15 years ago of independent Azerbaijan's Embassy in Russia, and other Diasporial Organizaions didn't manage something similar to the magazine, which was released week ago? Why only when the daughter of the President came to Moscow - only then there started some processes in Azeri Diaspora? Why Azerbaijanian rich men, well-known artists and others in Russia (even some of them were appointed to change the stereotypes about the Azerbaijanians in Russian society) didn't do anything? Only after the come of the young lady (the daughter of the President) some processes started up? Is it the weak-point of azerbaijanian nation? We cannot manage anything without the Presidnet's family? But well there are 200 countries in the world, and we cannot send 200 daughters, brothers, sons, sisters of the President to wake up the Diaspora, to start the processes moving!

What we are doing now - again in comparison with our "lovely neighbours" - we are again late...

But not be pessimistic - this magazine is really something,

Serj Sarkisyan and Piter Semnebi

http://day.az/news/armenia/102097.html

"Возможность решения нагорно-карабахского конфликта мирным путем не исчерпана и важно, чтобы Армения признала территориальную целостность Азербайджана, а Азербайджан - право народа Нагорного Карабаха на самоопределение.
Об этом на встрече с спецпредставитель ЕС на Южном Кавказе Питером Семнеби заявил премьер-министр Армении Серж Саркисян."
"The peaceful wayds of solving Nagorno-Karabakh conflict are not reduced and it is important that Armenia will recognize the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan, and Azerbaijan - the rights of the people of Nagorno-Karabakh to self-determination. This words told Serj Sarkisyan, Armenia's prime-minster during the meeting with EU special representative in the South Caucas Piter Semnebi"

Let's analyze this message from the Armenia's prime-minister. He is saying that Azerbaijan should recognize the rights of people of Nagorno-Karabakh to self-determine themselves. Ok - Azerbaijan is recognizing this rights, but without the lost of it's historical territory. Serj Sarkisyan told - not armenians, but the people of Nagorno-Karabakh. Well, firstly, if you want Azerbaijan to recognize self-determination of people of Nagorno-Karabakh - let refugees (which are in Azerbaijan) to return to their homes. Also Armenia should give back other occupied territories (around the Nagorno-Karabakh). Then, when the people returned to their houses - Azerbaijan may recognize their uniq, and their self-determination. Again what is important - the self-determination of the national minorities should'n come to the annexation of the part of the territory. National minorities may have cultural, ethnical and other (high stasuded) autonomy, but not to have own army, the chair in UN and so on.
Azerbaijan and Serbia are in very similar situation, even the reasons and historical aspects of the conflicts are very different! The situation, when International Community, International Law is not working, when the UN resolutions importancy is null.

Elvin

"Week of Azerbaijan" in Armenia and "Week of Armenia" in Azerbaijan

Several days ago we all knew that the Week of Azerbaijan will held in Armenia (some meetings of Non-governmental organizations, cultural dialog). Such events are know in the process of so-called "national diplomacy".
Today, Piter Semnebi (EU special representative in the South Caucas) proposed to held similar meeting in Azerbaijan. Weeks of Armenia in Azerbaijan!
I'm really sometime wonder about people! Let's imagine the situation: you and your neighbour pick a quarell. Your flat is bigger than neighbour's, and you have more members of your family than your neighbour. The result of the quarell with your neighbour - you lost one your room, one of your 5 brother was killed, two sister were ravished and your little infant died in tortune.
Then your friends propose to invite you to the flat of your neighbour and to discuss the problems in his family - his work and so on... Then your friends propose to have such meeting in your flat...
Wow! Now multiplate the death of man in 20, women 20, and chidren 10. Now you will see the parallel with this war.
How can a man invite his enemy to his house? Enemy, which killed his infants, ravished your wife, sisterm daughter? HOW?

Elvin

Again Karabakh issue

http://newsazerbaijan.ru/karabakh/20071218/42075380.html

Have you ever seen a country, 20% of which territory is under the occupation of other foreign power, providing for 17 years negotiations and discussions with the enemy?!

1,5 million of refugees, 30'000 killed person, totaly destroyed ancient towns - There is an old proverd that the blood should be washed away with the blood.

But, well the history will show - had the Azerbaijanian leaders chose the best way of solving the problem (peaceful) or not...

What is interesting for me is a new format of so-called "national diplomacy" - when there are a lot of meetings of the culture people, there are several films, which are created from the both parties and their goal is to restrain the hate between two nations.

I don't understand azerbaijanian people which are not against contacts with armenians - how the could forget the war? the death of unfants? the death of women, old men?

Azerbaijan - is a victim of this war, the nation has the psychology of the defeated party. Well, there are a lot of patriotic movies created in the past few years - but I'm pretty sure that the nature of the turk nation is to fight. To fight against the enemy.

And now Azerbaijan and Armenia are creating the document - and are in process of prepareng framework agreement. As Elmar Mamedyarov (Az. Minister of Foreign Affairs) told that "we are not fully agree with this document. Azerbaijan jas some claims related to this framework agreement which was proposed by OSCE".

I would like to mention that negotiations between Azerbaijanian and Armenian Diplomatic bodies are very classified. And I afraid that the nations in the not far future will be confronted with a fait accompli - with ready document.

In 2008 Armenia and Azerbaijan will have presidential elections - and from this point of view both parties has a huge risks. The Karabakh problem - is the main topic of the electioneerings...

I'm pretty sure that Azerbaijanian President will promise to the nation to liberate the Karabakh frim the foreign intervence.... and on the other hand - Armenia's candidates will promise to proclame independency of the "NKR"...

At least there is one more problem - when there is a unbeleivable growth of Azerbaijanian economy (read = officials wealth) - it is hard to start the war and to lose the stability...

My evaluation is that in 2008 Jan - Feb Azerbaijan will refuse to use OSCE as negotiator, and will :

1) negotiate with UN + Turkey and Islam Countries with the goal to make some influence on Armenia

2) start at the mid Spring the liberation movement

Elvin

America's help to Armenia and "NKR"

http://day.az/news/armenia/101817.html

Maybe it is enoug of using double standards in the International Affairs?
I wonder - why America, the democratic centre in the world, is financing countries which are in war. A mean Azerbaijan and Armenia.
The congressmen must know (I'm sure) that a huge part of this grants are going on arming - do they want the peaceful solving of the conflict, or their money granting is small steps in a big American strategy on the Caucas? To fire the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan + then attack Iran? Destabilize the situation on the South borders of Russian Empire?

Why I say - double standards: "NKR" - is a terroristic "republic", their army killed more than 30'000 azerbaijanian family in Karabakh, they openly proud of their terrorisric organization ASALA ( see more http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armenian_Secret_Army_for_the_Liberation_of_Armenia), or Dashankcyutun - another terroristic organization. So then, when America finane this country = then America finance terrorism ?

I'm afraid that our modern world is behind the big big crisis - even not economical, but the crisis of political behavior and political mind.
Today, when we see the situation in Kosovo - we understand, that the international law now is under the willing of separate countries (read = individuals).

...
Elvin

last week events

There are a lot of topics in which I'm intersted and have my own opinion. These are: presidental elections in Russia, Russia-Poland-USA relationships related to this anti-missile installations, Armenian agression against Azerbaijan, Iranian nuclear problem, Kosovo problem from the Karabakh conflict view point, the condition of Azerbaijanian Diaspora in Russia and so on..

But let me start on the problem, which I am interested a lot. This is hot situation in the South Caucas (Azerbaijan, Georgia, Armenia). From the beginning of the century (I'm wondered!) this territories were under undivided attention of the largest countries in the world. Let's remember the Entente countries, Russia, now USA. I understood that full control of these territories my play very improtant role in the one's strategy in Iran, Turkey and the rest West.
And even in modern world the Caucas and smolder conflicts are also in the worlds attention. Let's speak objectivly about Armenia/Azerbaijan conflict. I'm pretty sure that this conflict will be solved in a few years - it is about 20 years story, the story of Armenian occupation and the silence of former-USSR's top mans (Gorbachev and others), which helped to create the big explosive situation in the Caucas.
For 15 years Azerbaijan and Armenia are in cease-fire status (well, each day this status is broken) and for 15 years they have peacefull settlement with the help of negotiators - Minsk group OSCE.
Now we see that after the expiration of more than 15 years we have not any progress in this peacefull settlements. Why? Each time I'm reading the news, I ask myself - why for the 15 years of the hard discussion this three parts didn't solve this problem?
And even now Azerbaijanian diplomats are very dissatisfied with such format of discussions (you can feel this dissatisfaction from their interviews, analyzing of the Azerbaijanian part' warlike declarataions and so on). Even during the last week several Azerbaijanian non-Governmental organizations declared that this Minsk group OSCE's format of the discussions is not effective and doesn't meet Azerbaijanian expecations. What are the Azerbaijan's requierements:
1) principle of the territorial integrity of the Republic
2) all the refugees (azerbaijanians) should be returned to their houses

Armenians want firstly to decide the status of the so-called "Nagorno-Karabakh Republic", and then to disgorge the occupied territories (around the Karabakh region).

In Azerbaijan a lot of people are pretty sure that the key of the solving of this conflict is in the Kremlin, but Russia's official representatives always say that the problem should be solved only between Armenia and Azerbaijan. But, as old Russian proverb says: "their is not smoke without fire". It means that there are several reason why the idea of they Russia's influence to this conflict is very huge. The first is simple - the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan is a good way to perform political manipulations with Azerbaijan. I don't mention Armenia as the government and the President of Armenia are all under Russia's FAS (FSB - former KGB) control and 90% of Armenia's economy is under the Russian business. The second reason is that, in my mind - Armenian's are christians. It does not mean that the conflict has religion aspect,but well Russia is more opened to Christians than to Muslims. And if we read the history - we will know that Armenians were moved by russians to the Caucas 200-250 years ago, when Russian Empire had a fights with Osman Empire and with Caucas nations. Russians just tried to create Christian "wall" on their south borders.

... to be continued...

If you don't know what about is this Conflict, I'd like to recommend you to visit this web-page: www.karabakh.co.uk

Elvin